Alisson Becker is nearing full fitness after injury, meaning Arne Slot will soon have to decide between the Brazilian and his understudy Caoimhin Kelleher – so which goalkeeper should the Liverpool manager should go with?

Alisson tore his hamstring during the closing stages of Liverpool’s 1-0 win at Crystal Palace on October 5 and only recently returned to light training, with Slot confirming he and his medical staff would take a cautious approach to his recovery.

“We’re careful with everyone when it comes to muscles,” said the Dutchman, who was coy on whether Alisson would be in contention for the visit of Premier League champions Manchester City to Anfield on Super Sunday.

“He is back in training with goalkeeper coach and not training with the team, but that is expected soon. Let’s wait and see where he is in terms of match fitness, getting better and better but not ready.”

Slot does not need to rush Alisson back into action, though, with Liverpool unbeaten in all competitions during his seven-week absence and top of both the Premier League and Champions League tables.

Not only that, but Kelleher has once again performed to such a high level while standing in for Alisson there is now a real argument to be made that he deserves to retain his place in goal even when the Brazil international has fully recovered from injury.

What do the stats say, then, about the two shot-stoppers’ respective strengths and weaknesses and what other factors will Slot and Liverpool’s new goalkeeping coach Fabian Otte be considering when making this tough call?

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How do their temperament & experience compare?

Both players have outstanding temperaments – in fact, they are known for being unflappable characters who you rarely see ruffled even when under the most extreme pressures.

And there are no more extreme pressures for a goalkeeper than a penalty shoot-out, with no Liverpool ‘keeper having saved more spot kicks than Kelleher’s six in such situations – the Reds have also won all four League Cup shoot-outs he’s been involved in – while the Irishman scored the decisive penalty in the Reds’ dramatic 11-10 shoot-out win against Chelsea in the 2021/22 Carabao Cup final, before being named player of the match against the same opponents in last season’s final.

Not only that, but Kelleher was at it again on Wednesday night when saving Kylian Mbappe’s penalty in Liverpool’s 2-0 win against Real Madrid in the Champions League – as he also did to keep out spot kicks from Southampton’s Adam Armstrong, although he scored from the rebound, and Finland’s Joel Pohjanpalo this month.

Alisson also helped Liverpool edge Chelsea in a penalty shoot-out to claim the 2021/22 FA Cup final, although it is hard to match the 32-year-old when it comes to actual on-field experience.

The hirsute ‘keeper has made almost 500 appearances for Internacional, Roma and Liverpool since 2013 and has also been capped 71 times by Brazil across almost a decade, while also winning almost every trophy possible since moving to Anfield for a world-record £67m fee in 2018.

In contrast, the 26-year-old Kelleher has won just 26 caps for the Republic of Ireland since making his international debut over three years ago, while Alison’s presence as the Reds’ No 1 has also limited him to only 56 appearances in all competitions in five years at the club, almost half of which came last season.

Alisson leaves Reds hamstrung again

Normally, you would expect your first-choice goalkeeper to play all 38 Premier League games a season, which Alisson did in his debut campaign at Anfield.

However, the Brazilian has failed to reach that number in his five completed seasons since, sustaining a long-term calf issue just 39 minutes into the Reds’ 2019-20 title-winning campaign that sidelined him for seven league games, before suffering hip and shoulder problems the following season.

Meanwhile earlier this year, Alisson tore his hamstring in training, keeping him out of action for another seven top-flight matches and so far this campaign, he has also missed five league contests with the same injury.

In contrast, Kelleher – six years Alisson’s junior – has been largely injury free since making his Liverpool debut in September 2019, apart from a two-month absence with a hamstring pull at the start of the 2022/23 season.

Jeepers ‘keepers

A massive part now of any modern goalkeeper’s armoury is their ability with the ball at their feet, a skillset Alisson has always excelled at since arriving on Merseyside, which is why he is viewed by many experts as one of, if not the most complete goalkeepers in the world game.

Being Brazilian, the 32-year-old has always been comfortable when asked to operate as a sweeper-keeper, so much so he even has three league assists to his name during his Reds career, as well as a memorable goal to help his team to a vital late win at West Bromwich Albion in May 2021.

In recent seasons, though, the odd uncharacteristic error has crept into this part of Alisson’s game, as seen when he gifted Vinicius Junior an equaliser in a last-16 Champions League clash with Real at Anfield in February 2023, before being at fault for Gabriel Martinelli’s goal in February’s crucial 3-1 loss at title rivals Arsenal.

In comparison, incredibly some 32 per cent of all Kelleher’s touches in Premier League games have come outside his box, although his passing has been just slightly inferior to Alisson’s so far this season [72.13% pass completion rate compared to 81.54%], meaning Liverpool lose nothing in this regard with the Irishman between the sticks.

What do the overall stats say?

Sure, the likes of temperament, experience, availability and ball-playing ability are all key ingredients that form part of the modern goalkeeper, but ultimately what really matters when assessing shot-stoppers is exactly that, their ability to keep the ball out of the net.

In that regard, both players have started six times in the league this season, with Alisson conceding just two goals to Kelleher’s six, with three clean sheets to his name, one more than the Republic of Ireland international has managed.

In those six encounters, Alisson faced 17 shots, making 15 saves, with an 88.2 save percentage while preventing 2.7 goals in the process, in comparison to his back-up who has faced 23 shots, making 18 stops with a save percentage of 73.9 in preventing 1.1 goals.

Ultimately, though, it is when during a match a save is made that can affect its outcome as keeping out a goal with the score 1-0 is a lot different to doing so with the scoreline 3-0, as seen when Kelleher recently made world-class stops to deny Brighton’s Georginio Rutter, followed by Aston Villa’s Amadou Onana and Diego Carlos, to help secure narrow Liverpool wins.

And if you were to expand this metric out to all competitions, then Kelleher actually has prevented 4.5 goals in 10 games, compared to Alisson’s 2.6 in his eight matches, with crucially neither player having made an error leading to a goal in any fixture this campaign.

Will Alisson ‘Slot’ straight back into Liverpool’s line-up?

Slot has been unequivocal all along about his goalkeeping pecking order, confirming after Liverpool’s victory over Villa before the international break: “Alisson is, and will be, our first goalkeeper if he is fit.

“Caoimhin has done outstanding last season and this season again as well. But the moment Alisson will be fit he will be our first goalkeeper.”

And despite Kelleher crucially saving Mbappe’s spot kick at Anfield on Wednesday – prompting former Liverpool forward Steve McManaman to say on commentary: “Kelleher’s not a No 2, he’s a No 1 in equal right” – the Reds boss reiterated his stance: “Every decision is a difficult one but I think I have been clear about that. But tonight should be about Caoimhin being so important for us.

Kelleher’s not a No 2, he’s a No 1 in equal right.

“It was a big moment for him. You see Mbappe behind the ball and I thought what everyone thought, ‘this will probably go in’. But he saved it. A special moment for Caoimhin. That should be the headline rather than what I was clear about a few weeks ago.”

However, in terms of both the actual eye test – Kelleher has impressed greatly when covering for Alisson for extended spells last season and this – and the actual raw data, there is a strong argument to be made Liverpool would lose nothing by keeping faith with the Irishman and going with the age-old mantra of ‘never change a winning team’.

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