Ukraine’s plan to end the war

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced Tuesday that he has a new plan to end Russia’s years-long war on his country. Zelenskyy has only outlined the plan in broad strokes, but Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Wednesday that he’s not interested in a diplomatic resolution.

That rejection means Zelenskyy’s plan isn’t actually a realistic framework for ending the war any time soon. But it is nevertheless a useful document that outlines one scenario for how the war might end — and seems to be a tacit acknowledgement that Ukraine does not see a path to ending the conflict through force.

Zelenskyy outlined the plan’s four components as:

Continuing Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russia’s Kursk region — troops entered the area in early August and now hold more than 500 square miles of territory in an effort to pull Russian troops away from the frontline in eastern Ukraine.
Ensuring “security architecture” — a vague element that likely refers to Ukraine’s potential membership in NATO and the European Union.
Receiving a “powerful package” — likely referring to weapons — which will push Russia to enter into negotiations. Ukraine has requested more arms from allies (Zelenskyy will also probably ask permission to use weapons in Russian territory, something that was until recently forbidden).
Advancing an economic component — there’s little clarity about this piece of the plan, but it likely refers to increased sanctions on Russia.

The focus on weapons, security, and Kursk seems to suggest the overarching goal of the plan is to force Russia to the negotiation table through continued military action. Zelenskyy said he intends to present the plan to US President Joe Biden in September, when the Ukrainian president plans to attend the United Nations General Assembly, as well as to presidential candidates Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

“The success of this plan depends on [Biden],” Zelenskyy said Tuesday, in a seeming acknowledgement of the US’ and NATO allies’ role in keeping Ukraine stocked with weapons. “Will they give what we have in this plan or not? Will we be free to use what we have in this plan or not?”

But even as Zelenskyy discussed his plan to end the war — which has decimated large swaths of Ukraine’s southeast and driven hundreds of thousands of Russians into exile — Russia launched multiple air attacks against targets in southeastern and central Ukraine. Those attacks killed at least two people at a hotel in Zelenskyy’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih, and targeted nearly half of Ukraine’s regions, including the capital Kyiv and the Zaporizhzhia region, the site of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.

The path to peace is still extremely fraught; Zelenskyy’s plan doesn’t change that

There are still many barriers to peace. Chief among them is that Russia has flatly rejected the idea of a diplomatic end to the hostilities.

“The topic of negotiations at the moment has pretty much lost its relevance,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, echoing a line that Kremlin officials have stuck to since Ukrainian forces began capturing parts of Kursk.

It’s not clear what might get Russia to sit down and negotiate, though Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a defense think tank, told Vox that there “could be an opportunity for one of these third parties” — such as India or Turkey, which have relationships with both Russia and Ukraine’s allies — “to play a big role” in the end of the war.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has so far refused to condemn Russia’s invasion, reportedly offered Ukraine help with negotiating an end to the fighting. Modi also reportedly told Putin Tuesday that he supported efforts for a peaceful, diplomatic resolution to the war — soon.

It’s difficult to say what a diplomatic end to the war might look like, and Zelenskyy’s plan doesn’t offer any suggestions. But according to William Courtney, an adjunct senior fellow at RAND and a diplomat who served in Russia and eastern Europe, an end may not look like “total surrender” or a political settlement, but rather something like a sustained ceasefire.

The danger with that arrangement, however, is that “Russians are notorious for violating their international commitment,” Courtney told Vox — meaning there’s no guarantee a ceasefire would be sustained.

For now, however, any path to peace seems to lie at the end of more fighting. And that means despite the impressive Kursk push and Zelenskyy’s plan, the prospect of an imminent peaceful resolution looks dim.