The Mystery of Hezbollah’s Deadly Exploding Pagers

September 18, 2024:

The AP-900 runs on two AAA batteries, which, like any battery, could be induced to explode, but likely not with such force and scale as the explosions depicted in alleged videos of the blasts. If the pagers used by Hezbollah are the AR-924 or another model that runs on lithium-ion batteries, which can cause more dangerous explosions, it’s still unlikely that a regular pager battery alone could produce blasts that could injure multiple people.

“Those explosions aren’t just batteries,” says Jake Williams, vice president of research and development at Hunter Strategy who formerly worked for the US National Security Agency. “Based on the reporting, these pagers were likely interdicted by Israeli authorities and modified with explosives. This highlights the risks of supply chain security, especially in places where technology is harder to ship to.”

Williams points out that such an operation would likely involve operatives on both the tech distribution side and the Hezbollah procurement side. “You compromise the supply chain, but you don’t want thousands of explosive pagers running around Lebanon,” he says. “The mole gets them to exactly the right people.”

Some reports on Tuesday indicate that Hezbollah recently expanded its use of pagers in an attempt to secure communications after other channels had been infiltrated by Israeli intelligence. The Associated Press reported that an anonymous “Hezbollah official” said the group had recently adopted a “new brand” of pagers that “first heated up, then exploded.”

“It’s unlikely that hacking was involved, as it’s likely that explosive material had to be inside the pagers to cause such an effect,” says Lukasz Olejnik, an independent consultant and visiting senior research fellow at King’s College London’s Department of War Studies. “Reports mention the delivery of new pagers recently, so perhaps the delivery was compromised.”

Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at Middle East and North Africa risk management company Le Beck International, says if the attack is supply-chain-based, then it could have taken years to prepare and involved infiltrating a supplier and placing explosives inside new pagers.

“This is a major security breach, particularly if we’re talking about a charge that was placed inside the devices—which, in my opinion, is the most likely scenario,” Horowitz says. “This would mean that Israel has managed to infiltrate Hezbollah providers to the point of delivering hundreds (if not thousands) of devices used for secured communication.”

The incident comes amid escalations of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in recent months, raising fears of a full-blown war. In the hours before the explosions on Tuesday, Israel said its war goals would include allowing 60,000 people to return to Northern Israel after they were evacuated following Hezbollah attacks, and it would not rule out military action.

Horowitz says the incident could be a “prelude to a broader offensive” and possibly meant to disrupt Hezbollah’s communications networks. It is likely that replacing a large number of pagers would take some time to organize. Alternatively, Horowitz says, the attack could also have been conducted to show the “scale of Israel’s intelligence penetration.”

“This is a high-value operation that you wouldn’t use just to cause injuries,” Horowitz says.

Even if the blasts were not caused by a cyber-physical attack that induced the pager batteries to explode, it’s still possible that explosives planted in the pagers were detonated using a remote command, possibly even a specially crafted pager message. Some footage appeared to show users checking their pagers right as the explosions occurred, though this could have been coincidental.

The operation could have a psychological impact on Hezbollah given that bombs may have been lurking undetected in such an unassuming device. And though Tuesday’s attacks were notably aggressive, it would not be the first time Israeli intelligence has reportedly planted explosives in electronics.

Updated at 3:25 pm ET, September 17, 2024: Added additional details about potential ways the attack could have been carried out.

Updated at 3:40 pm ET, September 17, 2024: Added additional details about the pager model that may have been used in the attack.

Source link

tags

Abkhazia Afghanistan Africa Albania Algeria Andorra Angola Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahamas Bahrain Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Canada Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Chile China Colombia Comoros Costa Rica Croatia Cuba Curacao Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Djibouti Dominica Dominican Republic East Timor Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Ethiopia Fiji Finland France French Polynesia Gabon Gambia Georgia Germany Ghana Greece Grenada Guam Guatemala Guinea Guyana Haiti Honduras Hong Kong Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Iran Iraq Ireland Israel Italy Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kiribati Kosovo Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Laos Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Macau Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali Malta Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Monaco Mongolia Montenegro Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nepal Netherlands New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria North Korea North Macedonia Northern Cyprus Norway Oman Pakistan Palestine Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Puerto Rico Qatar Republic of the Congo Romania Russia Rwanda Saint Lucia Samoa San Marino Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Sierra Leone Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Solomon Islands Somalia South Korea South Sudan Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Tonga Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Uganda UK Ukraine United Arab Emirates Uruguay USA Uzbekistan Vatican City Venezuela Vietnam Western Sahara Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe