June 28, 2024:

Following a disastrous performance in Thursday night’s presidential debate, President Joe Biden is facing a flood of calls from Democratic pundits and strategists to step aside and make way for a different Democratic nominee amid real doubts that he is fit to defeat former President Donald Trump in November.

Biden’s time at the debate was full of nonsequiturs, rhetorical errors, off-topic asides, and extended pauses to gather his thoughts. He spoke quietly and with a scratchy throat — his aides say he had a cold. Overall, his performance only added fuel to existing concerns about his age and ability to perform his duties.

To be clear, Trump’s performance was a horror too; it was full of outright lies and rambling incoherence as well. He once again made clear that he poses a grave threat to US democracy — which is, in part, why some Democrats are saying Biden must step aside and allow a stronger candidate to lead the party in November.

Replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee would be difficult, but not impossible, as my colleague Christian Paz writes. It would require Biden himself to direct delegates at the convention this summer to vote for someone else and hand over his campaign funds. No party operative can force him out.

On Friday, Biden indicated that he does not intend to drop out and remains committed to a second debate in September. But if Biden changes his mind, there is a roster of potential candidates who could replace him — the most obvious being Vice President Kamala Harris.

Harris would be the most practical alternative to Biden

Voters have already grappled with the notion that Harris is just one 81-year-old heartbeat away from becoming president. Only a little over a third of voters said in a September CBS News/YouGov poll that they thought Biden would complete a second term. 

When up against other Democratic presidential contenders, she performs well. A June Morning Consult/Politico poll of registered voters found that 21 percent would want her to be the nominee if Biden weren’t running — more than any other candidate.

She’d be the easiest person to swap in, as she could also pick up campaigning right where Biden left off. Unlike other potential contenders to replace Biden, she could start using his campaign funds immediately because she’s already on the presidential ticket. Otherwise, Biden would have to transfer his funds to the Democratic National Committee, which would then disperse them to another candidate. 

The Biden campaign has also been trying to boost Harris’s profile by sending her on a tour of the country to talk about abortion rights, a key issue that has contributed to Democratic victories in elections from North Carolina to Kansas in the years since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. And since Trump’s criminal conviction, she’s proved capable of going on the offensive, leveraging her experience as the former San Francisco district attorney and California attorney general.

These facts, however, may not be enough to overcome the fact that Harris is unpopular, even relative to her predecessors as vice president. Her net disapproval rating is currently about 49 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. That’s better than Biden’s disapproval rating of 56 percent — but he’s also historically unpopular, and Harris would be running on the same record as Biden. Moreover, the Morning Consult/Politico poll found that just a third of voters and 3 in 5 Democrats believe it’s likely that she would win an election as the Democratic nominee.

This is partially a result of the White House’s failure in the first half of Biden’s presidency to give her the kind of exposure that might have boosted those numbers, instead giving her a portfolio that included the ever-intractable issue of immigration. That reportedly contributed to tensions between her office and the White House.

Attacks on Harris — the first woman, the first Black woman, and the first South Asian vice president — have also been colored with sexism and racism, as former White House chief of staff Ron Klain has noted.

Replacing Biden with Harris, therefore, would require the Democratic establishment to go all-in on her in a way they have yet to do.

The other possible contenders to replace Biden

If not Harris, a Biden replacement could also come from the bench of talent that Democrats have been eyeing for 2028: California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker. 

However, when asked about whether they would be willing to step in, they have demurred so far — which is as expected given all of them have been strong Biden surrogates.

In the Morning Consult/Politico poll, Newsom and Buttigieg came second after Harris as favored Democratic presidential contenders with 10 percent support. Whitmer came in third with four percent support. (Pritzker was not polled.) Newsom, Whitmer, and Pritzker also have strong approval ratings in their states. 

Gavin Newsom

Newsom’s recent debate with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has boosted his national profile. His record includes further protecting reproductive rights in California, clearing homeless encampments, phasing out gas-powered vehicles, expanding healthcare for undocumented immigrants, imposing a death penalty moratorium, enacting police reforms, and more. But his tenure as governor hasn’t been without challenges: He’s faced multiple recall campaigns, and the state is reeling from a multibillion-dollar deficit that required deep budget cuts this year. 

Gretchen Whitmer

Whitmer led Democrats to win majorities in both chambers of the Michigan legislature in the midterms. In the years since, she has worked to shore up abortion rights, expand LGBTQ rights, implement stricter gun safety measures, take aggressive climate action, institute free universal preschool, and reverse policies like a “right to work” law that hurt union membership and was previously implemented by the Michigan GOP.

J.B. Pritzker

Pritzker, who has a multi-billion dollar fortune, may have a strategic advantage in being less reliant on donors to fund a bid for president. He balanced his state’s budget and enacted a progressive agenda that included a $45 billion infrastructure plan, increased the hourly minimum wage to $15 by 2025, expanded Medicaid coverage to undocumented seniors, transitioned the state to 100 percent clean energy by 2050, and more. His state will host the Democratic National Convention this summer.

Pete Buttigieg

Buttigieg made his mark during the 2020 presidential campaign, essentially coming in third after Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT). As transportation secretary, he’s overseen the implementation of the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill passed in 2021, sought to improve road safety, and addressed pandemic-related supply chain disruptions. But he’s also come under heavy scrutiny over a series of high-profile train derailments and widespread flight delays and cancellations, though has since made efforts to hold airlines accountable.

But the public is still broadly unfamiliar with these rising stars in the Democratic party. With only months before the election, it may be late to introduce them now, even setting aside the tricky logistics at the convention. But voters might also be content to cast their ballot for someone who isn’t Biden or Trump: Previously, a generic Democrat has polled significantly better than Biden against Trump.

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