June 13, 2024:

Have you heard? The movies are dead. Or they are dying. Depends on who you ask. And it is true: It’s been a rough summer at the box office so far. But when every new bit of news seems to portend doom for this most beloved pastime, there’s still reason not to be a complete pessimist about the future of moviegoing.

While it’s not technically summer yet — that will happen on June 20 — summer movie season typically gets underway the first weekend in May. In recent years, the honor of kicking things off has gone to a superhero tentpole, with the pandemic era of 2020 and 2021 being a notable exception to the rule. This year, however, the movie that was slotted in that spot was The Fall Guy, the well-reviewed action rom-com featuring Ryan Gosling as a stuntman. It did not have the same impact as a Guardians of the Galaxy, which had its third installment in 2023, or an Avengers, which dominated in 2019, bringing in only $28.5 million on its opening weekend against a $140 million budget. Other disappointments kept coming, including the Mad Max: Fury Road prequel Furiosa, which led what was deemed by Variety “the worst Memorial Day weekend in nearly three decades.”

But there are some signs of life: Bad Boys: Ride or Die beat expectations, and hopes are high for both Inside Out 2 and Deadpool vs. Wolverine. So should we be mourning the moviegoing experience? Or is there hope yet? Here’s an optimistic take on our dire situation. 

The strikes were always going to make this a bummer of a year 

Remember last summer? While you were dressing up in your finest pink and going to see Barbie, Hollywood was in the midst of one of the most massive labor movements in its history. The Writers Guild of America went on strike in May followed by the Screen Actors Guild in July. While some smaller projects continued shooting through interim agreements with SAG, it meant that for the most part production on big-budget features ground to a halt. The strikes meant that 2024 was always going to be a tough year for the movie business. 

As the Hollywood Reporter notes, Deadpool was supposed to take the spot of The Fall Guy, but had to be delayed to July because of the work stoppage. Say what you will about Deadpool and the aggressively self-referential nature of that franchise, which can be very grating, but we’d likely be having a very different conversation if that movie had already debuted. Meanwhile, other films that could have made waves were either pushed to the fall (Mufasa: The Lion King) or bumped to 2025 (Marvel’s Thunderbolts). The strike delays were no help for an already battered industry coming off of the pandemic — even though the strikes themselves were a net good for workers. Still, it is impossible to evaluate this box office like any other. 

Furiosa bombing sucks — but it shouldn’t be the barometer

Let’s get this straight: Furiosa bombing sucks. Yes, it’s based on preexisting intellectual property, but it’s a brilliant movie from one of the all-time great directors, George Miller. So why did it feel like a bad fit for box office supremacy? For one, it’s time to look at Fury Road as an anomaly. When that film opened in 2015, it exceeded expectations for a new entry in a decades-old franchise featuring entirely new cast members in part because it was just such an undeniable masterpiece. On top of that, it still placed second in its opening weekend box office to Pitch Perfect 2. (Alas, the box office was generally a lot healthier then, meaning both raked in a lot more coin than Furiosa or its competitor Garfield.)

Despite Fury Road’s Oscar nominations and classic status, it makes sense that audiences would not rush to see a prequel, especially one that was not as rapturously received as its predecessor. It probably didn’t help that Anya Taylor-Joy replaced Charlize Theron, even if Taylor-Joy is fabulous in her own right. And, on top of all of that, as my colleague Bilge Ebiri wrote in Vulture, a movie as gloriously strange as Furiosa was never supposed to be the kind of thing that rescued cinemas. Thus, while sad that audiences didn’t flock to it, it’s hard to read as a death knell in and of itself. 

Flops keep on trucking

Remember when I said The Fall Guy flopped? Well, it did, but it also continued to make money at the box office even once Universal dropped it on digital, and has now made over $165 million worldwide. Meanwhile, John Krasinski’s kids film IF has also continued to make money despite its noxiously bad reviews and not-so-great initial haul. It’s all a reminder that opening weekend is important, but it’s not the be-all and end-all in some cases. Just look at the success of Anyone But You, the rom-com that opened mildly in December and then kept building on word of mouth to the extent that it got a Valentine’s Day rerelease and made over $200 million globally. 

We’re only a year out from Barbie and Oppenheimer 

Look, I personally find it hard to get too bummed out when I remember that last summer we had the high of Barbie and Oppenheimer. Both films far exceeded box office expectations, grossing over $1 billion worldwide. Collectively they eventized going to the cinemas again. People dressed up for Barbie, and flocked to IMAX 70MM for Oppenheimer. I don’t expect executives to immediately take the right lessons from this win — green lighting inspired non-sequels from genius creators — but I refuse to believe that was all for naught. 

There’s hope on the horizon, especially when you don’t underestimate audiences

The fourth Bad Boys movie has been heralded as a box office savior thanks to its $56 million opening weekend, and that is thrilling, but anyone is surprised by its popularity was underestimating Black and Latino audiences, who propelled it to success. Meanwhile, Inside Out 2, opening this weekend, is set to serve another group of people who need entertainment: children. Quality kids movies are few and far between — sorry, Garfield — and with school nearly out it should draw the little ones to air-conditioned seats. (Last year, Matt Singer wrote a great piece bemoaning just how sparse the kiddie market has been of late.) 

And finally there’s Deadpool vs. Wolverine. In some ways, it will be something of a philosophical bummer if the Deadpool sequel is a huge success. Why? Well, it will prove that superhero IP still has juice and probably condemn us to another 10 years of guys in suits. On the other hand, I will still cheer if it brings in the enormous haul everyone expects. A win’s a win. 

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